A new piece of analysis by Bain & Company, as reported by CNBC, paints a picture of a US car market contracting between now and 2024 as market forces make the auto biz uncomfortably competitive. Bain cites declining fertility as a cause, along with decreased immigration—in other words fewer people to buy cars to begin with. The auto industry matured, the report says, amid the expectation of 1% population growth per year, and population growth is now just about flat. But Bain says there’s also the issue of changing “behavior” among transportation consumers. Oh, and Bain also acknowledges that cars are just too damn expensive for many people now. A different forecasting firm called AutoForecast Solutions told CNBC it expects flat sales for about the next seven years, and told that publication, “When you look into the future, younger people are more likely to use Uber or Lyft when they’re going somewhere.” If this is meant to be a projection about the future, it might be a fanciful assumption in its own right, since inflation keeps hitting ride-hailing apps, and riders seem to be cutting back to save money. Nonetheless, Bain points out that today, only half of 16-year-olds have their driver’s license, as opposed to 70% from 1966 through 1984. Though Bain also says “most people” get around to getting their license by the time they’re 25.