The group stage of the 2026 World Cup is over.We’ve already seen more games than in the entirety of any previous World Cups, and only a third of the teams have been eliminated.The contenders will inevitably try to draw conclusions about what their performance so far means for their prospects for the rest of the tournament.But does it actually mean anything? Is the group stage just about getting through, and then worrying about the knockout phases later? Is there any correlation between how a team plays in the group phase and whether they go on to win the whole tournament?Let’s look at what history tells us by going through each of the previous 22 World Cups to see if there is any connection between how a team performs at the start and the end of the tournament.The first question is: Does winning your group matter? And the quick answer is: Yes, it seems to. Discounting the 1934 and 1938 tournaments, which were straight knockouts from the start and didn’t have group phases, 16 of the remaining 20 winners all finished top of their groups.That becomes even more stark when you look at more recent tournaments: each of the last 10 winners came top of their groups, with the last to finish second but still go all the way being Italy in 1982. That side was a bit of an outlier generally, unfancied after a betting scandal had deprived them of their best striker, Paolo Rossi, for two years before the tournament. They squeaked through the first round with three draws. They’re the only champions to get through their group without winning a game.Italy lifting the World Cup in 1982 (Steve Powell/Allsport)Getting to the final isn’t quite as much of a problem if you don’t dominate early on: seven losing finalists have got there without topping their group, most recently France in 2006. Those that snuck through this year as one of the best third-placed teams might take some encouragement from Argentina in 1990 and Italy in 1994, who were terrible in the first round, only making it through as the lucky losers, but in the end were still only one game away from glory.