Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has claimed responsibility for a coordinated missile and drone attack targeting U.S. military positions in Kuwait and Bahrain. The IRGC has further warned that it may terminate the existing Iran-U.S. agreement due to alleged ceasefire violations by the United States. This development comes amid a fragile 60-day ceasefire established by the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, aiming to permanently end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As tensions escalate, market participants appear to view these events as significantly impacting the likelihood of a final nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran by the upcoming deadlines.
Key Takeaways
Pricing suggests a decrease in the probability of reaching a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by August 18, 2026, with current odds at 20.5% YES.
The IRGC’s attack and threat to end the agreement appear supportive of a decreased likelihood of a nuclear deal by June 30, 2026, now priced at 0.1% YES.
Increased regional tensions following the IRGC’s actions may indicate a higher probability of Iran closing its airspace, consistent with an increase to 25% YES on this scenario.
