SoftBank has spent the better part of 2026 riding the OpenAI hype cycle. In May, shares surged nearly 20% in a single session when reports surfaced that OpenAI was preparing to file for its IPO. Then came the drop: shares fell as much as 11% in early June as concerns about high leverage, stalled financing, and increased competition for IPOs began circulating.
How SoftBank became OpenAI’s shadow stock
SoftBank’s cumulative investment in OpenAI now exceeds $60 billion, with the firm targeting an ownership stake somewhere between 11% and 13%.
OpenAI filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 8, 2026, a procedural step that allows companies to go through initial SEC review before making their filings public. The filing pointed to a potential valuation exceeding $850 billion. But executives signaled that the timeline could still stretch further out, noting the strategic advantages of remaining private and flagging readiness concerns.
Leverage, credit downgrades, and a stalled loan
