Key Facts
—The print. The IPCA-15 preview rose 0.41% in June, below the 0.44% the market expected and the softest reading relative to forecast in months.
—The driver. Residential electricity jumped 2.04%, the single biggest contributor at 0.08 percentage point, under a yellow tariff flag plus rate resets in four cities.
—The relief. Food and beverage inflation slowed to 0.74% from above 1% in each of the prior two months, easing the part of the basket households feel most.
—The pivot. Traders now put higher odds on a Selic cut than on a hold at the August meeting, reversing the data-dependent caution the central bank left in place a week ago.
