The U.S. Men’s National Team clinched its spot in the World Cup knockout stage with a game to spare. But thanks to the seeding formula FIFA implemented for its first 48-team field, the USMNT won’t know its round-of-32 opponent for sure until near the end of group stage play. For now, American fans will have to live with the roughly 99.5% probability that Bosnia and Herzegovina awaits in San Francisco on July 6.
On Sunday, the 32 remaining teams will include the winners and runners-up from each of the 12 groups, plus the eight best third-place finishers based on numerous tiebreakers. The order of the tiebreakers is: total points, goal differential, goals scored, fewer cards and finally, FIFA world ranking. That classification is critical for remaining in the tournament, but entirely meaningless when it comes to determining the round-of-32 matchups.
While group winners all receive some advantage for winning their group, the top-placing group winner doesn’t necessarily get the lowest-qualifying third-place team. Instead, winners of eight predetermined groups get to play a third-place team in the first round. The other four must play a group runner-up in the first round, but get the benefit of not having to play another group winner until the quarterfinals (their mini-section of four teams contains only them and three group runners-up).
