Bosnia and Herzegovina just punched their ticket to the World Cup knockout rounds in the most dramatic fashion possible: by sending the host nation home. Their 3-1 win over Qatar on June 24 all but guarantees a Round of 32 clash with the USMNT, a matchup that projection models now give a greater than 99% probability of happening.
The US topped Group D and will face a third-place finisher from another group. Before Bosnia’s win, pre-match simulations pegged the likelihood of this specific matchup at 58%. That number has now surged past 99%, making the pairing essentially a formality.
What happened in Group B
Bosnia’s victory was convincing and clinical. A 3-1 scoreline against Qatar locked them into third place in Group B, which is enough to advance under the expanded 48-team World Cup format. For Qatar, the result means elimination from the tournament entirely.
The 2026 World Cup is the first to feature 48 teams, up from 32. That means more groups, more games, and a new Round of 32 stage that didn’t previously exist. Third-place finishers can advance, which is how Bosnia finds itself still alive despite not topping their group.
