The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish May’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index on June 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET, alongside the final estimate for first-quarter 2026 GDP.
Why PCE matters more than CPI
While the Consumer Price Index tends to grab headlines, the PCE index is what the central bank actually uses to set policy. PCE accounts for substitution effects, meaning it adjusts when consumers swap expensive goods for cheaper alternatives.
April’s headline PCE inflation hit 3.8% year-over-year, the steepest climb since May 2023. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose to 3.3% YoY. Both figures sit well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Market analysts expect May’s core PCE reading to land in the 3.3% to 3.4% range. A print within that band would confirm that inflation remains stubbornly elevated, giving the Fed little reason to adjust its current stance.
