For years, Donald Trump made his feelings about interest rates about as subtle as a foghorn. Lower rates, always lower rates. So the notion that his administration might actually be blessing a rate increase feels like watching a plot twist nobody saw coming.

Yet here we are. An analyst flagged Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent public statements as a “green light” for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to pursue a modest rate hike, a move aimed squarely at inflation that has climbed to 4.2%, its highest level in three years.

What happened at the FOMC meeting

Warsh, who was confirmed by the Senate on May 13 with a narrow 54-45 vote and officially took office on May 22, held rates steady at his first FOMC meeting on June 17. Of the 18 policymakers who submitted projections, 9 indicated they foresee at least one rate hike before year-end.

Rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions are the primary culprits behind the inflationary pressure.