The figure defies all forecasts. Venezuela is preparing to acknowledge a debt of close to 240 billion dollars, well above the 150 to 200 billion that markets had so far been expecting. The news, revealed by the 'Financial Times', would put Caracas on the brink of the largest restructuring ever recorded, even surpassing Greece's historic default in 2012.
The move comes after the country's political upheaval. Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro last January, interim president Delcy Rodríguez has taken charge and her goal is clear: to strike a deal with creditors before the end of the year and bring Venezuela back to international capital markets, from which it has been shut out for almost a decade.
According to the British newspaper, US bank Centerview Partners, hired as an adviser, is finalising a viability plan that will be published in early July. Before that, later this month, Caracas will present a macroeconomic framework painting a stark picture: an economy shrunk to around 100 billion dollars, compared with 370 billion in 2012, Hugo Chávez's last year in office.
A far bigger debt than expected
Yet one detail in all this is setting alarm bells ringing: unlike in other major restructurings, the debt sustainability analysis does not bear the signature of the International Monetary Fund. That fact is already worrying the Venezuelan opposition, which fears the country could be left in an even more vulnerable position vis-à-vis its creditors.
