Oil has undergone a dizzying sell-off against a backdrop of a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran in Switzerland and reports of increased shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Remarkably, on Jun. 22 the price of Dated Brent, a benchmark for deliverable oil, fell below the front-month Brent futures contract, a clear signal that the physical market perceives plentiful supply ahead. But has the pendulum swung too far? The ceasefire is tenuous, and if events in recent months have demonstrated anything, it is that Iran can declare the Strait of Hormuz shut at a moment’s notice, and any perception of plentiful supply can dissolve momentarily. Further, a renewal of oil shipments through the strait and restarting idle wells and refining capacity will require months, industry players and analysts agree, and the process will be fraught.