The US dollar just had its best day in months, and crypto felt every bit of it.
The dollar index climbed to 100.85 on June 18, its highest reading since November, after the Federal Open Market Committee wrapped up a meeting that left markets recalibrating their assumptions about where interest rates are headed.
What the Fed actually said
The FOMC voted to keep the federal funds rate in its current range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its June 17 meeting. Nine out of eighteen Fed officials now expect at least one rate hike before the end of 2026, with the median projection landing at 3.8%.
On Kalshi, the prediction market platform, the probability of a Fed rate hike happening later in 2026 jumped to 57%. Just days before the meeting, that number sat at 35%. A 22-percentage-point swing in a matter of hours is the kind of move that reshuffles portfolios.
