The euro just hit its lowest point against the US dollar since August 2025. EUR/USD touched 1.14048, and the combination of soft economic data and a deliberately measured ECB president is largely to blame.
Christine Lagarde spoke on June 22-23, 2026, and the market heard what it needed to hear: the ECB’s Governing Council did not discuss the neutral rate at its most recent meeting. In central bank language, that is a quiet signal that policymakers are in no hurry to push rates higher. Traders responded accordingly.
What actually happened
The ECB did raise rates by 25 basis points in June 2026. Weak eurozone PMI data arrived at roughly the same time as her comments. PMI figures, which measure activity across manufacturing and services sectors, act as a real-time pulse check on economic momentum. When they disappoint, they tend to amplify whatever signal the central bank is already sending.
For context, EUR/USD at 1.14048 is not a crisis level. The August 2025 comparison is the market’s way of saying this move has erased months of gains built on earlier hawkish ECB positioning.
