Thursday’s by-elections gave new hope to both the Conservatives and Labour. Both parties have been in the doldrums in the polls for more than a year – with Keir Starmer, at least, paying the ultimate price for his party’s unpopularity this morning. As Andy Burnham and the other victors arrive in Westminster to be sworn in as MPs, Labour and the Tories are hoping their respective successes in Aberdeen and Makerfield portend that they can now get the wind in their sails once more and re-establish their current tenuous relationship with the electorate.
The Conservatives fought Aberdeen South by emphasising their support for the continued exploration and extraction of the remaining oil and gas reserves in the North Sea. Aberdeen was, of course, just the place where such a message would have had resonance – once the oil capital of Britain, it has fallen on harder times now that the height of the North Sea bonanza is well behind us.
Burnham will have to champion the interests of the whole country, not just Manchester
In sharp contrast to the Scottish parliament election at the beginning of May, when Tory support fell to a new all-time low (and fell just as much in Aberdeen as everywhere else) voters appeared to respond. The 25-point increase in the party’s share of the vote in 2024 is the biggest ever rise on its general election vote that the Conservatives have registered in a by-election. Winning just under half the vote, the party secured by far its highest-ever vote share locally in what has hitherto always been a closely fought constituency.
