The hype was justified in the end. It was hard to escape the conclusion that at 3.06am, the UK Labour Party’s and Britain’s political future had just walked onstage at the Edge conference centre in Wigan.It wasn’t just the fact of Andy Burnham’s victory for Labour over Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in the Makerfield byelection. It was the crushing manner of it, the ease with which the former Greater Manchester mayor vanquished a party that, just weeks ago, seemed to have Labour on the run.On May 7th, Labour candidates won about 23 per cent of the vote in local elections in this rugged patchwork of old mining towns 35km west of Manchester. Reform had romped home in every ward in this heavily pro-Brexit constituency.This morning, after the Makerfield byelection votes had all been counted, Burnham had secured almost 55 per cent, more than doubling Labour’s share from last month, and a full 20 percentage points ahead of Reform.Not only that, but Burnham had also almost doubled the number of votes that made up Labour’s electoral majority compared with the last general election of 2024.What answer could beleaguered UK prime minister Keir Starmer credibly offer now to the question: when will you step aside to let Burnham take your place in Downing Street? Make no mistake: Downing Street is where Burnham believes he is heading.In his victory speech, he suggested he was Labour’s “final chance to change” to avoid annihilation at the hands of Reform in the next general election. If Burnham could beat Farage here in pro-Brexit territory, could he teach Labour how to beat him everywhere?He can now credibly make the argument that it is he, and not Starmer, who has the ability to halt Reform’s gallop and reverse Labour’s slide into the electoral swamp. The Makerfield vote, he said, would lead to “big change at national level”.The icing on the cake for Burnham was that his margin of victory over Reform’s candidate, local plumber Rob Kenyon, was almost triple the vote share of the even-more-right-wing party, Restore Britain, that had split the populist vote.So Restore didn’t “hand victory” over Reform to Burnham, as had been predicted. He seized it for himself and battered both the rightwing parties in the process.Lou Haigh, the former UK transport secretary and Sheffield Heeley MP who helped to mastermind the victor’s campaign, came straight out to say that Starmer must now make way for Burnham in an “orderly transition” of power.The UK prime minister has, until now, insisted he is going nowhere. The emphatic manner of Burnham’s victory, and the inescapable conclusion that the so-called King of the North has answers to the Reform conundrum that he does not, means Starmer may be fast running out of road.What odds now on Burnham taking power in Britain in advance of the UK-EU summit on July 22nd?If Burnham does end up in Downing Street, and if he does subsequently try to replicate his victory over Reform across the UK at a general election, he may not find it as easy as he did in Makerfield.For a start, he cannot replicate himself as a candidate – it was clear that Burnham’s celebrity status gave him advantages that would not be available to other Labour candidates. “There’s only one Andy Burnham” is more than a football-themed chant of his supporters.Burnham’s enduring popularity also might not last too long beyond first contact with the prime minister’s chair in Downing Street.There is also no guarantee that Restore, at a national level, would split as many votes away from Reform in other constituencies as it did in Makerfield. A Burnham-led Labour also might not be blessed with rival candidates as weak as the hapless Kenyon, who ran a terrible campaign and was a drag on Reform’s performance.And what now for Farage’s party, which has been soundly beaten in the last two English byelections? It has clearly peaked. Restore is splitting its vote. Farage’s dream of becoming UK prime minister has gone from near-inevitability to long shot.All eyes now will be on Starmer in the days ahead: to see if he clings stubbornly to his place in Downing Street and faces Burnham in a leadership contest; or gives way. Former health secretary Wes Streeting could also trigger a contest.Burnham, however, has the political momentum and, for his Labour internal rivals, may be impossible to stop as he makes a break for Number 10.