British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will have mixed feelings as he awaits the result of today’s Makerfield by-election.

As Labour leader, he will celebrate if his party wins. As prime minister, his survival depends on Labour losing.

A victory for Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate, would be a personal catastrophe for the prime minister. A victorious Burnham would immediately travel to Westminster on a mission to destroy the Starmer premiership – meaning Starmer is all but finished.

This would be an unimaginable humiliation for a man elected as prime minister less than two years ago with one of the largest majorities in British political history.

There is much discussion today about whether Starmer will fight to stay in office, or go quietly. It doesn’t matter. A bad tooth can be extracted using anaesthetic or, more painfully, without. The result is the same.