The US economy keeps showing up to the party uninvited, and it keeps stealing the show. Citigroup’s US Economic Surprise Index just climbed to 63.2, a level not seen since August 2023, signaling that hard data is consistently beating what analysts predicted.
What the index actually measures
Citigroup’s CESI aggregates actual economic data releases and compares them against consensus forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. When the number is positive, reality is outrunning expectations. When it’s negative, the economy is underdelivering.
At 63.2, the index is deeply positive. Across a broad swath of economic indicators, the real numbers are coming in meaningfully hotter than the median forecast on Wall Street.
The sectors driving the surprise aren’t obscure corners of the economy. Retail sales, manufacturing output, employment figures, Purchasing Managers’ Index readings, and factory orders have all contributed to the upswing.
