The U.S. farm economy has been fighting one battle after another in recent years, but a new threat is on the horizon that evokes memories of one of the worst agricultural disasters ever.
After the post-COVID inflation spike, farmers had to pay higher input costs, then saw prices for their crops tumble. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking campaign to tame inflation burdened farms with more onerous financing terms.
President Donald Trump’s trade war last year hiked tariffs on key metals that raised prices for tractors, combines, harvesters, and parts. China’s retaliation resulted in a virtual boycott on American soybeans, and exports collapsed to just $3 billion in 2025 from a peak of nearly $18 billion in 2022.
The U.S. and China called a ceasefire on their trade war, but soybean growers are expected mark their fourth straight money-losing year in 2026.
Then Trump’s war on Iran this year sent diesel and fertilizer costs soaring. And while the U.S. and Iran have stopping fighting, energy markets aren’t expected to return to normal for months, and fertilizer prices are expected to remain higher than usual into spring 2027. Meanwhile, farm bankruptcies are soaring.
