There has long been a worry that Russian escalation or miscalculation might see the Ukraine war widen into a broader European one. But what if it’s Kyiv, not Moscow, that starts this process?
The flashpoint is Belarus. Minsk’s dictatorial leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is beholden to Vladimir Putin, but not a helpless vassal. On the one hand, he has refused to join Putin’s war directly, saying that he won’t allow Belarusians to become ‘mincemeat.’ On the other, he has been willing to let Russian troops use facilities in his country, and fly drones and missiles through his airspace.
There is growing concern, not only in Minsk and Moscow but also in many European capitals, that Zelensky, fired up by his recent successes, may overreach
Flush with recent success after striking deep into Russia, Volodymyr Zelensky has begun escalating his rhetoric against Belarus.
Back in February, he urged Nato to treat Oreshnik missiles based in Belarus as legitimate targets, regardless of whether they had been or were going to be used. Last month, following (implausible) claims that Minsk was considering joining a new Russian offensive against Chernihiv in northern Ukraine, he warned Lukashenko to ‘understand there will be consequences if there is aggression against Ukraine.’ The head of Kyiv’s drone forces, warned that he had a list of 500 Belarusian targets he would strike.
