Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently warned of “unusual activity” on his country’s northern border with Belarus. The Ukrainian leader’s comments came amid reports that Belarus is expanding military infrastructure in the border region. This is fueling speculation that Russia may be planning to open up a new front in the war against Ukraine, and could seek to pressure Belarus into joining the invasion.
Fears of a new Belarusian front are probably overblown, at least for the time being. However, there are clear indications that Russia is steadily expanding Belarusian involvement in the war.
In recent months, Ukraine has accused Moscow of using communications infrastructure located across the border in Belarus to enhance the strike capabilities of Russian drones inside Ukraine. Officials in Kyiv claim this infrastructure is often located close to civilian areas, making it far more challenging to detect and counter.
Meanwhile, the appearance of new military-related infrastructure including training grounds and logistics routes close to the Ukrainian border appears designed to create the conditions for potential future offensive operations. While there is currently no sign of any troop buildup in the border zone, Ukraine is treating these developments seriously and remains acutely aware that Belarus offers the shortest invasion route to Kyiv, a fact that shaped the initial stage of Russia’s invasion in 2022.
