Colombia’s presidential runoff on June 21, 2026, is shaping up as a referendum on war and peace. Right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella faces left-wing senator Iván Cepeda in a contest defined almost entirely by the country’s escalating armed conflict, a crisis that has worsened considerably under President Gustavo Petro’s watch.
The first-round vote on May 31 was razor-close. De la Espriella pulled 43.7% to Cepeda’s 40.9%, setting up a runoff that will determine whether Colombia pivots toward military confrontation or sticks with the negotiation-first approach that has defined Petro’s presidency.
A peace strategy that produced more war
Armed group membership has ballooned from roughly 15,000 in 2022 to about 22,000 by 2025. That’s a nearly 50% increase during a presidency built on the promise of dialogue.
The numbers break down across several factions. The ELN accounts for approximately 6,000 members. FARC dissidents number around 5,000. And Clan del Golfo fields roughly 7,500 fighters.
