El Niño is on the way, but its direct effects on Portugal will be very limited, according to information from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA).
The European Commission, through the Joint Research Centre (JRC), is the latest international body to say it is "virtually certain" the phenomenon will recur this year, probably lasting until 2027.
According to the JRC report, El Niño is expected to reach a "very high" intensity, probably hitting a "very strong" level and potentially surpassing historical precedents such as the event 12 years ago. The European Commission warns in particular of the food risks associated with drought, which comes on top of already high energy and fertiliser prices and could put "hundreds of millions of additional people at risk". Adverse weather conditions could hit key crops such as durum wheat, which may be the most affected, as well as maize, rice, soya and winter wheat.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a warning earlier this month (source in Portuguese), saying there is an 80% probability that an El Niño event will develop between June and August this year, meaning an abnormal rise in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, with direct consequences for tropical and subtropical regions worldwide and possible indirect effects in many other parts of the globe. More recent forecasts say the consequences of this event, which is expected to have "moderate to strong" intensity, have a 90% probability of lasting until the end of the year.
