Every year, the biggest mistakes made by NHL teams are made on the first day of free agency. It’s the nature of the free market, where bidding wars drive up prices to wild places and the last team standing is usually paying an uncomfortable amount.Amidst that, there are still great deals to be had for undervalued players at the right place. That’s the goal of today’s piece: finding 10 players within the UFA landscape who project to provide surplus value relative to what they’re expected to be paid.Here’s who I think are the best players to target based on their projected contracts, courtesy of AFP Analytics.Is Viggo Bjorck the best center in the NHL Draft?Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler and moreMason MarchmentFor the teams that strike out on Alex Tuch and need a top-six winger, Marchment feels like a great consolation prize at potentially half the price. After struggling with the Kraken, Marchment was an absolute revelation in Columbus with some dazzling numbers at five-on-five (59 percent of expected goals, 69 percent of actual goals) while scoring at a 67-point pace. Marchment has consistently posted north of two five-on-five points per 60 in each of the last three seasons, where his teams have routinely outscored teams heavily.Marchment probably isn’t a driver, but he looks like a difference-making complementary piece that could pair well with a star or influence offense on the second line. He’d be a bargain at his projected price tag of $5.7 million; I have him closer to $7.5 million.Viktor ArvidssonFor most of his career in Nashville, Arvidsson was a 60-point player. In Los Angeles, he was a 60-point player. And last year in Boston, he was a 60-point player. That he only managed 27 points in 67 games in Edmonton, primarily playing with Leon Draisaitl, remains a mystery to this day. It’s also the only season aside from his rookie year that Arvidsson’s team didn’t outscore their opponents with him on the ice. Weird.Arvidsson is on the older side of things and he’s a safe bet to miss some games, but when he’s playing, he’s a tried and true play-driver who creates a ton of in-zone offense. He bounced back nicely from a disaster in Edmonton and should be a solid 25-25 guy in the top six. That’s easily worth an expected $5 million AAV. He’s worth closer to $6 million.John CarlsonFew defensemen have been as consistently excellent as Carlson over the last decade; it’s remarkable how steady his value has been from age 27 to 36 with little sign of slowing down. In that span, his projected Net Rating has stayed tight between plus-eight and plus-13 with no decline whatsoever over the last four seasons. Last season may have even been his best in that span, with 60 points and some of his best five-on-five numbers in years.While there’s a lot of potential upside with Darren Raddysh, given his meteoric rise last season, it’s the volatility of such a seismic shift in value that gives pause. Carlson is the complete opposite of that: you know exactly what you’re getting with one of the league’s most dependable offensive defensemen.At some point, he’s going to slow down, and that’s the main risk with signing him. But he’s still a strong bet relative to his projected price tag of $7 million over the next three years. Accounting for age, he might still be a $10 million man.