Every year, the biggest mistakes made by NHL teams are made on the first day of free agency. It’s the nature of the free market, where bidding wars drive up prices to wild places and the last team standing is usually paying an uncomfortable amount.Yesterday, we looked at 10 undervalued players who should avoid that. Today, we look at the opposite: The overvalued players to actively avoid. It’s the players who very likely won’t be worth what they’ll be paid this summer.Here’s who I think are the players to avoid based on their projected contracts courtesy of AFP Analytics.How Carolina built the Hurricanes to win the Stanley CupSean Gentille and Jayne OrensteinJacob TroubaFresh off an $8 million cap hit, it doesn’t appear like the price tag for Jacob Trouba’s services is going to go down dramatically. AFP Analytics is forecasting a four-year deal at $6.4 million per season. I think Trouba is worth only half of that.There’s a lot to like about Trouba’s game; he’s a feared competitor with size and a right shot who has shown some aptitude for eating minutes. At this point in his career, he’s still on the cusp of top-four caliber, mostly thanks to a bounce-back in his first full season with the Ducks.But even that bounce-back had Trouba in just No. 4 territory and is one year removed from him looking almost completely washed with the Rangers. He looks better, sure, but he’s still very far from clearing the bar necessary to be paid $6.4 million per season and there’s real risk with the wrong fit. At that price, teams are paying for a solid No. 3; at 32, I’m not convinced Trouba has that level in him anymore.Trouba was still valued at that level in 2022-23 when he ate tough matchups to a near draw, but we’re now four seasons removed from that. Even if Trouba clicks perfectly with his next team, is it a safe bet to expect that to continue in his mid-30s? I wouldn’t count on it.If a fortunate team can get Trouba for something much closer to third-pair money, he’s worth it for the intangible elements he brings to the table. His expected price tag is much harder to justify.Andrew PeekeFew defensemen have been consistently outscored as badly as Andrew Peeke has over the last few years. On Boston’s sheltered third pair, he doesn’t even have the excuse of playing tough minutes as he did in Columbus either. Earning 43 percent of actual goals and 44 percent of expected goals in soft minutes should be a very tough sell for most teams and Peeke’s tracked data looks even worse. He’s a no-show in the offensive zone, and his ability to break pucks out and defend his blue line from entries looks rough, too. Being 6-foot-3 shouldn’t matter if a player can’t play and Peeke’s minus-10.7 Net Rating last year was essentially replacement level.And yet AFP Analytics has him projected for a $4.1 million AAV on a four-year deal. That’s more than twice as much as he should be getting and would be a day-one albatross. Size isn’t everything and in Peeke’s case, it’s all he’s got.Brett KulakI hesitate to have Brett Kulak on this list because of how strong he was in the playoffs. He was defensively stout and delivered a 54 percent xG rate for the Avalanche playing top-four minutes. But during the regular season, his numbers tanked for three separate teams, culminating in a 47 percent xG and just a 45 percent goal rate. Relative to teammates, only four defensemen were worse than Kulak on the xG front.That drops Kulak’s projected value way down heading into the 2026-27 season, where he now looks closer to a low-end third-pair option rather than the No. 4/5 he was for a while in Edmonton. That’s not unheard-of for a 32-year-old defenseman, but I’d be very wary of paying Kulak for what he was a year ago rather than what he is now. Kulak is projected to net $4 million annually over a three-year deal; he’s not that guy anymore.Logan StanleyLogan Stanley’s potential deal doesn’t look completely awful based on what AFP Analytics is projecting: A two-year deal at $3 million per year. That’s probably too much for a replacement-level option whom the Sabres opted to scratch in Game 7, but it’s not end-of-the-world bad.