LONDON, June 18 : Global stocks were torn on Thursday between concern about the rising chances of a U.S. rate hike this year after the Federal Reserve's meeting and optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.The United States and Iran on Wednesday released the text of their agreement, which extends a ceasefire announced in April by another 60 days to allow the two sides to negotiate a truce. It also includes the full resumption of maritime traffic "with no charge" in the Strait of Hormuz.Against that backdrop, oil dropped another 2.8 per cent to around $77 a barrel, the lowest since early March. Global stocks dipped 0.1 per cent, as futures and shares in Europe fell, shaking off shares in Tokyo and Seoul hitting record highs overnight.The interim deal would mark a significant step toward normalising crude supply and prices, but Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, cautioned uncertainties remained.
U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to resume attacks and kill Iranian officials if they failed to honour their commitments. "The current toll-free transit period is limited to 60 days, and the future framework remains uncertain, leaving lingering concerns," Maruyama said in a note.In Europe, the STOXX 600 fell 0.5 per cent, as declines in energy shares like Shell and BP offset gains in tech stocks like ASML, Infineon and AI-exposed industrial group Schneider Electric.Europe is more vulnerable to an increase in inflation from higher oil prices than the United States and so falling oil prices are good for European economies, but the weight of energy shares on various national markets kept the pan-regional index slightly in the red.U.S. stock futures edged higher, with S&P 500 E-minis and Nasdaq 100 E-minis up around 1 per cent.The dollar rose for a second day after the Fed, in its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, left rates in a 3.50 per cent-3.75 per cent range. Nearly half of its policymakers indicated they now expect a hike this year, as concerns mount on inflation.For his part, Warsh opened the new era with a sweeping policy review and did not add his own forecasts for rates to the so-called "dot plot" - a visual representation of where each member expects rates to be over time.Money markets show traders now fully expect a rate hike by October, from a roughly 80 per cent chance of a hike by the end of the year earlier in the week."We had expected Warsh to sound critical of forward guidance, but he has been even quicker than we thought at introducing his style of leadership to the Fed. While some worry that a lack of guidance from the Fed could confuse financial markets, we think that the opposite is true. The laser focus on prices could ultimately make it easier to predict what the Fed does next," XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said.The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six others, was a touch stronger at 100.46, near its highest for two months. The euro was down 0.1 per cent at $1.15, while the pound was down 0.2 per cent ahead of a Bank of England meeting later in the day at which rates are widely expected to remain unchanged.Benchmark U.S. 10-year notes were last yielding 4.45 per cent, down 1 basis point on the day, while two-year notes, which are more sensitive to Fed expectations, were also down 1 bp at 4.168 per cent, having posted their worst daily performance in three months the day before. (Additional reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama in Tokyo; Editing by Jamie Freed, Neil Fullick and Susan Fenton)
