Even as the United States and Iran appear to have forged a deal to stop their hostilities, the global shipping industry is cautious about resuming operations in the Strait of Hormuz.
Sea mines, skyrocketing insurance premiums and a lack of confidence after prolonged military activity in the critical waterway will make the recovery effort as economic and political as operational.
Shipping executives welcomed the peace framework unveiled by the US and Iran in Évian during the G7 summit, which is intended to fully reopen the strait over the course of 60 days. The agreement is due to be formally adopted on Friday in Switzerland.
The text of the deal published on Wednesday says the US will end its naval blockade and that Iran will use “its best efforts” to allow the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz without charge for 60 days. During that time, the US and Iran will continue talks on Tehran's nuclear programme.
The Strait may reopen around 19 June – but the reality of allowing ships to resume navigation is highly complicated. According to energy intelligence firm Kpler, investors expecting a swift return to normal should prepare for a much slower and more uneven recovery.
