Research
June 16, 2026
The Iran war is further eroding the rule of law and constraints on the use of force, narrowing the strategic space available to Southeast Asian states that depend on international law and institutions.
The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates the feasibility of weaponizing strategic waterways and increases the risks to Asia’s own chokepoints, including the Strait of Malacca, the Luzon Strait, and the Taiwan Strait. This in turn increases the pressure on secondary waters, including Indonesian archipelagic waters.
The war in Iran is further deepening doubts about U.S. leadership and reliability. While this may not mean reduced economic or strategic engagement with the United States, it may make it more difficult for Washington to achieve its goals and objectives in the region—there are already signs of this happening.
