Australia's grain production in the new financial year is expected to fall sharply as higher fertilizer costs linked to the Middle East conflict weigh on growers, the government and industry forecasts indicate.
National winter crop production is forecast to fall by 21 percent in 2026-27, reflecting an expected decline in the total area planted and lower yields, with the figure 12 percent below the five-year average, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, or ABARES, said in its latest June crop report.
Wheat production is forecast to fall by 26 percent, 23 percent below the five-year average. Barley, canola and chickpea output are expected to decline by 15 percent, 20 percent and 51 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, summer crop production is estimated to have fallen by 15 percent in 2025-26.
Barley production is expected to fall in 2026-27, despite the planting area being forecast to increase by 4 percent, driven by strong cereal grain prices and its comparatively lower fertilizer requirement compared to wheat and canola, the report said.
The current forecast was affected by both climatic conditions and agricultural input costs, with fertilizer supply and prices becoming important factors in crop production for the new season, ABARES said.
