President Donald Trump’s decisions to start and end the Iran war will eventually be judged for their global impact, but the effect on domestic politics should come much sooner.Republicans are trying to defend their congressional majorities in an election year. The question is whether Trump’s Iran deal will make that task easier or harder.Another way to look at it is whether by resolving his biggest immediate foreign policy challenge, he can also solve his main domestic political problem.
Inflation would undoubtedly be lower without the Iran war and the resulting dueling blockades of the Strait of Hormuz.
This would make public perceptions of the economy, which are currently sharply negative, at least marginally better.
The Iran war itself is unpopular, with just 38.1% approving of the job Trump is doing on this issue in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. (Though depending on the details, the disapproval numbers could soon include Iran hawks who are dissatisfied with the deal.)
Trump won the 2024 election in part because inflation hit a 41-year high under former President Joe Biden and his replacement as the Democratic nominee, former Vice President Kamala Harris. He was also able to position himself in such a way as to appeal to both sides of several major foreign policy disputes.
