The Iran war has turned into a political disaster for President Donald Trump. The conflict was never popular to begin with, and predictably, support for it has dropped over time. Eighty percent of Americans favor ending the war as quickly as possible. Despite an overwhelming victory on the battlefield, the president and his negotiators pivoted dramatically in recent weeks and are now all-in on a deal that is looking more and more like Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, at best. Politically, Iran is a double-edged sword for the White House and Republicans. A war-weary electorate is skeptical of any military engagement in the Middle East, and if former President Joe Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan is any indication, the public is unlikely to approve of the details of any deal the Iranian regime would accept. If there is one thing Americans hate more than war, it is losing a war. Biden’s approval rating never saw daylight again after Abbey Gate.
Whether Trump’s about face on Iran is solely due to the political realities at home, or if the president was being truthful when he said in France that negotiations prevented a “global depression,” an end to the conflict will not be a get out of jail free card electorally for the administration. Even if Vice President JD Vance’s dovish view of the Iranian regime proves successful, which seems unlikely if past is prologue, Republicans still have massive structural challenges to overcome heading into the midterm elections. Per the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump’s approval rating is 17.3 points underwater. Polling on specific issues paints an even grimmer picture. The president is 15.1 points underwater on foreign policy, which is unsurprising considering the results of the Iran war. On the economy, Trump is down 26.3 points, with a whopping 61.3% of voters disapproving of the president’s handling of the issue that matters most. Inflation was the issue that sank Biden’s presidency and allowed Republicans to take the White House and both houses of Congress in 2024. On his handling of inflation, voters give the president his lowest marks of any issue polled. Nearly 69% of voters disapprove. President Donald Trump declared that Iran is “FINISHED” in his first statement since Israel launched massive strikes against Lebanon, triggering reports that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again. (Graphic by Christine Valora/Washington Examiner; photos by AP)
