https://calmatters.org/politics/2025/06/california-newson-possible-presidential/
The likelihood of the proposed billionaire tax appearing on California’s November 2026 ballot has seen a steep decline in prediction markets. This shift followed reports of opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, who has publicly stated his disapproval of the measure. The initiative, designed to impose a one-time 5% tax on net worth above $1 billion to fund state programs, had previously shown strong popular support. However, with the governor’s stance and resistance from certain Democratic and labor groups, market participants are now less confident that the measure will secure a place on the ballot.
Key Takeaways
Market activity suggests that Governor Gavin Newsom’s opposition to the billionaire tax has significantly decreased the measure’s perceived chances of appearing on the ballot.
The probability of the tax initiative reaching the ballot has dropped sharply, with market odds falling from 40% to 19% over the past week.
