The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day FOMC meeting on June 16 at 10 a.m. ET, right on schedule. What happens tomorrow afternoon is what actually matters.

The policy decision drops at 2 p.m. ET on June 17, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. CME FedWatch is pricing in a 99% probability that the Fed holds the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%.

The real action will come from the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot, the Fed’s way of telegraphing where rates might be heading for the rest of the year.

Why a “boring” hold still matters

This is the fourth FOMC meeting of 2026. The current rate range of 3.50% to 3.75% has been in place since the April 28-29 meeting.