The latest agreement between the United States and Iran has produced the predictable wave of Lebanese illusions. Some have rushed to declare that the war is over. Others have convinced themselves that the next sixty days will somehow produce a miracle: Hezbollah will accept the logic of the state, Iran will abandon its Lebanese military investment, Israel will withdraw, and Lebanon will wake up to a new dawn of reconstruction, stability, and sovereignty.
This is not analysis. It is escapism.
The sixty days leading up to the memorandum of understanding will not change the fundamentals of the Lebanese crisis. They may silence some guns temporarily. They may reduce the tempo of Israeli strikes. They may give diplomats enough language to claim progress. But they will not answer the only question that matters: will Hezbollah disarm and allow the Lebanese state to become sovereign again?
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The answer, unless proven otherwise by facts on the ground, is no.
