The Makerfield by-election isn’t settled yet. The possibilities of Labour voters staying home, Reform UK successfully squeezing the Restore vote to their right, or voters being tempted by the Boaty McBoatface opportunity to inflict the most chaotic possible outcome are all still in play. Andy Burnham cannot rest easy until the votes are counted and tallied on Friday morning.
However, for the sake of sketching out the nation’s future, let’s say that the Greater Manchester Mayor wins and returns to the House of Commons. In that scenario, everyone expects that he will successfully challenge for the leadership and thereby become our next prime minister.
What will change? Downing Street would have an occupant more at ease with himself, and more natural on camera, than currently. The Labour Party may feel some degree of relief to be led by someone more in tune with the vibes of the grassroots and the parliamentary party. There would no doubt be a honeymoon period, in the papers and the polls, as we get to know our new overlord.
The list of what would stay the same, however, seems rather longer. The world remains a dangerous and conflict-ridden place. The economy remains wracked by low growth, high taxes, over-regulation and under-productivity. Most importantly of all, the state has no spare taxpayers’ money with which it might hope to address either of these challenges.
