Voters in Makerfield in north-west England are going to the polls on Thursday in a by-election whose outcome could determine whether Sir Keir Starmer remains as prime minister.If Labour former health secretary Andy Burnham wins, he is expected to quickly challenge Sir Keir for the party leadership, having gathered support among backbenchers who have urged him on.But Reform UK candidate, Robert Kenyon, also has strong support in the constituency. Reform is worried about losing voters to Rupert Lowe’s party, Restore Britain, which takes a harder line on migration.Wes Streeting, also an ex-health secretary, says that if Mr Burnham returns to Westminster and stands against Sir Keir, he will join the contest.The list of candidates is here.Polls open at 7am and will close at 10pm.Unemployment and growth figures give Labour gentle boost on by-election morningThe latest unemployment and earnings growth figures will come as a gentle boost for Labour as voters go to the polls in Makerfield.UK average regular earnings growth remained unchanged at 3.4 per cent in the three months to April and was 0.3 per cent higher after taking Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation into account, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.The rate of UK unemployment fell to 4.9 per cent in the three months to April, from 5 per cent in the three months to March, according to the ONS.Nicole Wootton-Cane18 June 2026 07:55Jane Dalton18 June 2026 07:45Burnham has 'made things difficult' for Reform, insider saysA Reform UK board member has admitted Andy Burnham “has made things very difficult” for the party in the crucial Makerfield by-election, as internal data suggests Nigel Farage’s party is heading for a comfortable defeat.Gawain Towler, a long-time ally of Reform leader Mr Farage, told Times Radio that Mr Burnham “does change the weather”, adding that it will be a “very, very hard task” beating him in Thursday’s crucial vote.His comments come as data, collated by a separate source in Reform UK and seen by The Independent, appears to confirm that Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain is set to split the right-wing vote and make a big enough dent in Reform’s support to end their chances of claiming victory over Labour.The data, collated by an experienced election campaigner who has spent significant time in the constituency since the by-election was announced, estimated that Mr Burnham is set to win by five points.Polls will close at 10pm this evening.Nicole Wootton-Cane18 June 2026 07:35In pictures: Voting begins in MakerfieldPolls will close this evening at 10pm (AFP/Getty)Polling stations are open in Makerfield (Reuters)A person walks outside a polling station during the Makerfield by-election (Reuters)Nicole Wootton-Cane18 June 2026 07:25Burnham rules out accepting job from StarmerSir Keir Starmer has indicated he would give Andy Burnham a cabinet job if he wins the Makerfield by-election, saying he wants the leadership rival to “play a big part in the Labour government”.Speaking on the fringes of the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, the prime minister said he would talk to Mr Burnham “after the weekend” once the results from Makerfield are in, as well as saying there are no circumstances under which he would walk away from his job.If the Greater Manchester mayor wins today’s vote, it is expected he will return to Westminster to challenge the prime minister for his job.But sources close to the Greater Manchester mayor have already made it clear he will not accept a job from the prime minister, in a sign that he is ready to move against Sir Keir for the top job.Andy Burnham is running for election in Makerfield (Jon Super)Nicole Wootton-Cane18 June 2026 07:16Analysis: Is Rachel Reeves actually getting things right?Is Rachel Reeves actually getting things right?As inflation holds steady, the economy appears to be performing better than anyone had expected. But, says James Moore, as and when it all finally comes good, will the chancellor still be in post to take the credit?Jane Dalton18 June 2026 07:10Voting begins in Makerfield Polling stations have just opened in the crunch by-election in Makerfield, which is between Manchester and Liverpool in northwest England.It is illegal to publish the results of any opinion poll on voting day until polling stations close. Six candidates are standing for election: Jane Dalton18 June 2026 07:01