Frontline Ltd, one of the biggest names in the global tanker industry, has warned that meaningful shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will take weeks to resume, even with the US-Iran framework agreement now in place. CEO Lars Barstad has indicated that while traffic could ramp up relatively quickly once credible safety guarantees are established, a return to pre-conflict volumes of 130 to 140 vessels per day is not happening anytime soon.
Why a deal on paper doesn’t mean ships in the water
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG supplies. Shippers across Asia and Europe have been clear: confidence needs to be rebuilt before significant volumes resume. That means mine clearance operations, normalized insurance policies, and validated safety guarantees all need to fall into place first.
Political deals alone are insufficient to restore commercial traffic, according to shipping operators. The broader consensus among analysts and industry players is that full recovery of shipping volumes to pre-conflict levels may not occur until 2027.
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