SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion IPO was, by any measure, historic. Whether it was justified is a different question.
Keith Snyder, a senior equities analyst at the Center for Financial Research and Analysis, says he can only match SpaceX’s current $2 trillion market cap by factoring in “almost comical growth for AI” — and still falling short. His estimate: xAI accounts for 71% of SpaceX’s valuation. “I hope most investors did not give that number weight,” he said of the S1’s AI projections.
To be sure, one part of SpaceX’s rocket and satellite business is profitable and dominant — Starlink counts millions of paying subscribers globally, and bulls argue that xAI is early-stage, Grok’s integration into X gives it a distribution edge and enterprise adoption curves for AI products can inflect sharply. SpaceX did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.
The S1 gave investors something to dream on: SpaceX claimed 93% of its total addressable market would be “in AI” — a figure roughly equivalent to U.S. annual GDP, or $26.5 trillion. “This is an Elon Musk company, so Elon Musk numbers are wildly optimistic,” Snyder told Fortune, “and so the TAM number that they came out with, I have absolutely no idea how they arrived at.”
