The US and Iran are closing in on a memorandum of understanding that would require Tehran to destroy its highly enriched uranium stockpile and dismantle key nuclear infrastructure in exchange for sanctions relief. A senior US official has put the odds of finalizing the MOU at roughly 80%, with a target date that would trigger a 60-day window for hammering out the finer details on atomic limits and economic incentives.

For crypto markets, the nuclear diplomacy itself isn’t the headline. The headline is what’s happening in the margins: the US Treasury sanctioned several major Iranian digital asset exchanges on June 2, including Nobitex, specifically to choke off Tehran’s ability to use Bitcoin and USDT to sidestep international financial restrictions.

What the deal actually looks like

The milestones are not small. Destroying highly enriched uranium and dismantling nuclear capabilities are the kind of steps that take months to execute and verify, with confirmation required from both the IAEA and US inspectors before any sanctions come off the table.

Beyond the nuclear specifics, the draft agreement also includes geopolitical stipulations. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly part of the framework. So is a requirement that Iran cease financial support for groups like Hezbollah.