US and Iranian officials are signaling that a memorandum of understanding could be signed within days, a development that would extend a ceasefire between the two nations and kick off broader negotiations over nuclear issues and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Prediction markets are currently assessing an 85% probability that the MOU gets signed.
Iran’s Foreign Minister has indicated the signing could happen remotely, though Geneva remains a possible venue. But here’s the thing: even if the ink dries on this agreement, it’s really just the starting gun for roughly 60 days of technical discussions, with final approval still needed from both President Donald Trump and Iranian leadership.
Crypto as a sanctions battlefield
While diplomats negotiate, Washington has been using digital asset enforcement as one of its sharpest pressure tools. On June 2, 2026, the US sanctioned Nobitex, Iran’s largest crypto exchange, for its alleged role in facilitating funding channels for the Iranian regime.
That action didn’t come out of nowhere. In April 2026, $344 million in Iran-linked digital assets were frozen with Tether’s cooperation, part of a broader crackdown on crypto-based sanctions evasion.
