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Jun 15, 2026
Don Aviv
The most likely outcome of the Iran war is not peace but an unsatisfying ceasefire that leaves the underlying issues unresolved. This will mean an uneasy equilibrium in which Gulf countries go their own way, US influence wanes, and the regional order remains unsettled.
NEW YORK—In recent weeks, the world’s attention has centered on how the Iran war will end, whether the United States and the Islamic Republic can reach a ceasefire agreement, and how Israel will respond. Equally pressing are the economic consequences: when oil and gas prices will stabilize, whether Saudi Arabia’s economic projects can get back on track, and when governments and investors across the region can return to business as usual.
