Sasol and Thungela fall as US–Iran deal hopes weigh on energy stocks

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Energy shares lost ground on Monday as hopes for an agreement between the US and Iran eased concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies.The moves came as broader financial markets rose after reports that the US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement aimed at ending months of conflict. The proposed deal, which needs to be formally signed, includes steps that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments.Brent crude fell more than 5% as investors anticipated fewer disruptions to global oil flows. Prices have been highly volatile during the war that began on February 28, with Brent reaching an intraday high of about $119.50 a barrel on March 9 as a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatened global oil shipments.Sasol, given its close link to oil prices through its fuel and chemicals businesses, fell more than 9%, leading the losses on the JSE. Movements in crude prices feed into earnings expectations for Sasol through fuel pricing and the cost of raw materials used in its chemicals business.Thungela Resources was down more than 5% as shares linked to the energy sector eased more broadly, even though its earnings are driven mainly by thermal coal rather than oil.Exxaro Resources weakened 0.3%, a more limited move that may be linked to its wider business mix. Alongside its coal operations, the company has exposure to other mineral assets and investments, including renewable energy projects, which can help cushion movements in any single commodity cycle.In recent weeks the conflict has shifted between periods of heightened tension and renewed diplomatic engagement, with markets reacting sharply to developments linked to the Strait of Hormuz and broader security in the Gulf. Attention is now on whether the reported preliminary agreement between the US and Iran is formally signed and implemented, or whether talks stall and tensions rise again, which would probably lead to renewed pressure on oil prices given the strategic importance of the region to global energy flows.