US Treasuries rallied across the curve as investors rapidly repriced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes following news of a deal to end the US-Iran conflict. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.46%, a sharp reversal from the multi-year highs that had defined much of 2026’s bond market.
The catalyst: President Trump announced on June 11 a pause on military strikes against Iran, pivoting toward diplomatic negotiations.
What changed, and how fast
Before the diplomatic shift, earlier military engagements between the US and Iran in 2026 had pushed Treasury yields significantly higher. The 30-year yield had been approaching multi-year highs as traders priced in a prolonged conflict that would keep energy costs elevated and inflation sticky.
Then came the June 11 announcement, followed by reports of a draft 14-point memorandum of understanding between the two nations. The framework reportedly addresses regional de-escalation, the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief.
