A $200 ChatGPT subscription could cost OpenAI $14,000 if you actually used it to its full potential

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Bottom line: The math behind AI subscriptions is starting to look uncomfortable. Flat monthly pricing helped fuel the rapid adoption of tools like ChatGPT and Claude, but new analysis suggests those fees may not come close to covering the actual cost of heavy use. As users push these systems harder and more demanding AI workflows take hold, the gap between revenue and compute costs is becoming difficult to ignore.

SemiAnalysis has calculated how big that gap really is. After testing subscription tiers from both OpenAI and Anthropic – running long-horizon coding and agentic tasks until weekly limits were exhausted – the firm found that the cost of theoretical maximum usage of these plans if priced at standard API rates far exceeds what users actually pay.

A $200 ChatGPT Pro 20x subscription could cost as much as $14,000 in API pricing if fully utilized. Anthropic's Claude Max 20x plan, also priced at $200 per month, has a comparable ceiling, with potential usage totaling roughly $8,000 in token costs.