US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz announced on June 14 that the Trump administration expects a preliminary framework for a peace deal with Iran to be signed imminently, with the president aiming for a signature as soon as June 15. The statement marks a notable shift from weeks of escalating military tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran toward something that at least resembles an off-ramp.
Crypto markets noticed. Bitcoin has climbed toward $64K on the back of the diplomatic optimism, and prediction market odds for a permanent US-Iran peace deal in June have risen to 37%.
What the deal looks like so far
The diplomatic push follows a period of significant hostilities, including US-Israeli strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure and elements of its nuclear program.
President Trump announced a ceasefire on June 14 and called for a verifiable agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Waltz has been explicit about wanting something different from previous diplomatic efforts with Iran, most notably the 2015 JCPOA, which were built more heavily on trust-based frameworks.
