A senior Trump administration official has put the odds of a US-Iran peace deal at 80% to 85%, with a potential agreement expected within days. If that confidence holds, it would mark the most significant diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East in years, and crypto markets are already pricing in the optimism.
The proposed deal centers on a straightforward exchange: Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and the US lifts its blockade on Iranian shipping. Nuclear issues would be punted to a later round of negotiations.
What’s on the table
Roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has described the so-called Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding as having “never been closer,” though he cautioned against premature speculation. President Trump, for his part, called the progress a “great settlement” that would reduce tensions in the region.
