Ray, a retired electrician, appears to me to be nailed on for Reform. ‘Look at what happened to that young lad Henry Nowak,’ he tells me. ‘That guy was carrying a knife. But it was legal. How is that right? If people are going to come and live here they should abide by our rules. It seems like all the time we’re having to bend over backwards for them.’He’s also deeply frustrated by Labour. ‘They’ve let people down here,’ he says. ‘Ask anyone. They’re so angry with Starmer and what the Government’s done.’So how will he be voting next Thursday, I ask.‘Oh, Andy Burnham,’ he replies.I do a double-take. I put it to him that he sounds more in tune with Nigel Farage than Labour’s heir apparent – especially on the horrific recent attacks in Southampton and Belfast.He shakes his head. ‘I think Farage has been jumping on that,’ he explains. ‘Didn’t like it.’When I arrived in Makerfield just over three weeks ago, I noted that on paper this was Reform’s by-election to lose. The party had just swept the board here in the local elections. Fury at Labour’s perceived betrayal of its Northern base was palpable.But that’s not how things are playing out. The polls. The canvass returns. The disproportionate volume of people signing up for, and claiming to have returned, postal votes. They all point in the same direction. In this corner of the old Red Wall, the turquoise insurgency appears to be faltering.As I walk along the tidy bungalows of Upshaw Drive, this again looks like solid Reform territory. Here people aren’t flying flags from lampposts, but on flagpoles proudly situated in their front lawn.Then I get chatting to Paul, a builder. He’s just got back from visiting friends in Blackburn, and is hosing down his SUV. Again, he is furious with Labour.Unlike Ray, he is not impressed with Andy Burnham. ‘We had an MP. He’s just done this for himself,’ he observes.So will he be voting? ‘Oh, I already have done,’ he says. ‘Conservative.’ Again, I look a little nonplussed. This is supposed to be a straight fight between Labour – sorry Burnham – and Reform.Paul shrugs. ‘I’m not voting Labour. And Reform? Well, they just got all these old Tories in, didn’t they? I might as well stick with the real thing.’Over the past week I’ve made contact with sources in all the main political camps. And a consistent message has emerged. In their view, the momentum, and previously undecided voters, are breaking in Burnham’s favour.A number of theories have been floated for this. The Manchester mayor’s popularity in a constituency where he is seen to have strong ties. Increasing concerns about Robert Kenyon, Reform’s candidate, and his controversial social media posts. But another is provided by Harry, who was out attending to the grass verge in front of his house.Again, at first sight Harry appears to be a Reform voter from central casting.A former machinist, he talks animatedly about the days when he and his colleagues used to have to pull each other out of their overalls because they were so exhausted at the end of a shift. He has nothing but contempt for Labour, Starmer and the wider political establishment. Andy Burnham in Wigan today... a consistent message is emerging that the momentum, and previously undecided voters, are breaking in Burnham’s favour, writes Dan HodgesBut again, when I mention Nigel Farage, he waves his hand dismissively. ‘He’s just the same as all the others. None of them ever get anything done. I won’t be voting for any of them.’This is a theme I’ve been picking up for several months now.Reform and their leader still enjoy significant support, but the mood of insurgency that attended their breakthrough at the election two years ago is starting to fade, or – in Makerfield – is even being appropriated.I’m now walking up Hindley high street with Rupert Lowe, leader of the breakaway Restore party, and his candidate Rebecca Shepherd. They’ve just come from a rally at Haydock racecourse, where 700 activists saw Lowe pledging to crack down on the grooming gangs, a speech that was greeted with enthusiastic cheers of ‘Hang the b******s!’One of the great unknowns of this contest is the extent to which Restore will split the anti-Burnham vote, throwing open his path to Downing Street.Earlier in the week, Nigel Farage had contemptuously dismissed their challenge, claiming no one knew who Rupert Lowe actually was.But the residents of Hindley beg to differ.As Lowe and Shepherd continue their stately perambulation, they are greeted with cheers, beeping horns and shouts of ‘Come on, Restore!’As they pull alongside Musto’s Barbers, Austin, a local builder, cannot contain his excitement, and rushes out to shake Lowe’s hand whilst still clad in his salon apron.‘I’ll be voting for him,’ he tells me. ‘He’s a normal person. He understands what we‘re worried about. There’s just been another stabbing in Burnley. Rupert knows the score.’Moments later, Austin’s place is taken by Tracey, a local teacher. Her enthusiasm has led her to abandon her car in the street and run over to proffer her support.‘He’s amazing,’ she tells me. ‘He delivers. Nigel Farage? He’s promised a lot, but has he followed through? Rupert has.’Obviously these responses are anecdotal. And the sight of any politician with an entourage, and couple of cameras in tow, will always draw a crowd.It would also be wrong to assume the voters of Makerfield are suddenly turning their back on Reform in their droves.Soon after I leave Lowe, I bump into Sandra, who is clearing out the possessions from her late father’s flat.‘I’m Reform all the way,’ she tells me proudly.‘My father’s two greatest heroes were Margaret Thatcher and Nigel Farage. We need our country back, and Nigel will give it to us.’But the initial assumption held by many observers – including me – that Restore were a flash in the pan and would see their vote squeezed to nothing as polling day approaches, seems to be wide of the mark.Indeed, the struggle here between Lowe and Farage may now be developing into a fight to the death.If Restore do ultimately see their vote suppressed, then Lowe’s hope of stealing his former mentor’s insurgent clothes will have been dashed for good.But if he can break into double figures, or prove to be the difference between a Reform victory or defeat, then Restore will have successfully established themselves as another small but significant fragment of the fracturing political mainstream.Next Thursday Makerfield goes to the polls. Whatever the result, British politics will never be the same again.