We live in a time of ifs and wills. If Reform and Restore split the right-wing vote in Makerfield, will Andy Burnham win this Thursday’s by-election? If he does re-enter the Commons, will he challenge Keir Starmer for Labour’s leadership? If he does so, will it be a contest or a coronation? If Burnham wins, will he then call an election? And if he does so, will Labour win it?
I cannot go inside Burnham’s head; as Lara Brown has highlighted, there isn’t much in it, except the Happy Mondays. But I can read polls. The two hypotheticals that have been done with Burnham give Labour a slim lead. In our current era of multi-party politics, that could be enough to eke out a slim majority or at least to be the largest party in a hung parliament capable of cobbling together a government. This is before a Burnham-bounce – stop laughing at the back – from a nation rejoicing at Starmer’s departure.
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An election would give Burnham the opportunity to seek his own mandate, unshackle himself from a 2024 manifesto that he has publicly dissed and which has proven unworkable in government. It would also be – unless this undisguised rent-a-minister turned municipal bus botherer proves to be a prime minister of Augustan abilities – his best chance of winning before he falls victim to the entropy, events and ennui that do for all premiers in Weimar Britain. Come to the cabaret, Andy!
