Chicago Fed projects US retail sales fell 0.3% in May, marking seventh decline in nine months

American consumers are pulling back, and it’s becoming a pattern. The Chicago Federal Reserve’s preliminary CARTS report, released June 8, projects that US retail and food services sales excluding autos declined 0.3% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.

That’s the seventh decline in just nine months.

The numbers behind the slowdown

The CARTS projection, which stands for Advance Retail Trade Summary, aggregates high-frequency data from payment card transactions, retail foot traffic, gasoline sales, and consumer sentiment to estimate retail activity before the official government figures drop. It uses a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model that incorporates Census Bureau data alongside private-sector sources like Bloomberg, Consumer Edge, and SafeGraph foot traffic data.

Real retail sales, meaning the amount consumers actually bought after stripping out price changes, are projected to have fallen 1.3% in May.