In brief
A new study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets found Americans wagered up to $34 billion on offshore prediction markets during a 12-month span.
It estimated that up to 30% of Polymarket's trading volume during the period came from Americans.
Offshore prediction market trading volume by Americans could grow to as much as $133 billion by 2030, the study estimated.
Americans were responsible for up to $34 billion in offshore prediction market trading volumes during the 12-month period ending in April 2026, according to a new study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, an industry group that includes regulated prediction market operators like Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Coinbase. The study, which was conducted by Rutgers professor and CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee member Harry Crane, compared data from offshore platforms—or those that do not allow U.S. users and are not regulated by the CFTC—with platforms that have exclusively U.S. users, or exclusively non-U.S. users.“As a share of all U.S. prediction market activity (including regulated and offshore platforms), we estimate 12.5–31.5% of U.S. prediction market volume occurs on offshore platforms,” the study says. “Based on current third-party estimates of industry growth, U.S.-based activity on offshore prediction markets could grow to an estimated $133 billion in annual volume by 2030, assuming constant relative market shares of regulated and offshore markets,” it added.
