U.S. users are continuing to access prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Myriad Markets that are supposed to geo-fence the entire country, according to a new research report from Crane Zeng, a boutique consulting firm specializing in analytics, political strategy, and prediction markets.
On Thursday, the consultancy firm published a report claiming that some $11 billion to $34 billion of total offshore prediction market volume came from U.S. users. Polymarket, the second-largest prediction market following Kalshi, accounted for between $11 billion and $27 billion of that activity alone, the report said, calling that a "conservative" estimate.
"Based on current third-party estimates of industry growth, U.S.-based activity on offshore prediction markets could grow to an estimated $133 billion in annual volume by 2030, assuming constant relative market shares of regulated and offshore markets," an executive summary of the report said.
Prediction markets have exploded in popularity over the past two years, largely driven by market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket. These companies offer venues for users to place binary yes-or-no bets on the outcome of any event, from politics and economics to sports and entertainment.
